Stock futures rose on Monday morning as Wall Street looked ahead to the second half of 2024. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq-100 all showed modest gains, signaling a positive start to the new trading period. This comes after a mixed performance in the first half, driven by technology stocks and ongoing economic uncertainties.
Key Takeaways
- Stock Futures: Dow Jones futures up 0.12%, S&P 500 futures up 0.08%, Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.02%.
- First Half Performance: S&P 500 gained 14.5%, Nasdaq Composite rallied 18.1%, Dow Jones added 3.8%.
- Economic Indicators: June jobs report, S&P PMI manufacturing, and ISM manufacturing data due this week.
- Global Markets: European stocks rise, Asian markets show mixed performance.
Wall Street’s Mixed First Half
Wall Street is coming off a losing session for the major averages, despite a strong finish to the first half of the trading year. The S&P 500 gained 14.5%, driven by excitement surrounding artificial intelligence and stocks like Nvidia. The Nasdaq Composite rallied 18.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed, adding only 3.8% due to a pullback in the second quarter.
For the quarter, the S&P and Nasdaq added 3.9% and 8.3%, respectively, while the Dow lost 1.7%. The Nasdaq notched its third positive quarter in a row for the first time since a five-quarter streak ending in 2021.
Technology Sector Momentum
Some analysts expect the technology-driven momentum to persist at least through the summer, despite concerns that stock valuations have reached heightened levels. King Lip, chief strategist at BakerAvenue Wealth Management, noted that the tech sector shows no signs of slowing down and may even be accelerating. However, he cautioned that the sector could face resistance during periods of seasonal weakness and profit-taking in September and October.
Economic Indicators to Watch
This week kicks off a holiday-shortened trading period, with markets closed on Thursday for the Fourth of July. Investors will be closely watching the June jobs report, set to be released on Friday, for clues about the state of the labor market. Additionally, S&P PMI manufacturing and ISM manufacturing data for June are due out on Monday, along with May construction spending figures.
Global Market Performance
European stocks were higher on Monday morning, with the regional Stoxx 600 index rebounding from four straight losses to trade up 0.45%. France’s CAC 40 index led gains, adding 1.4%, as investors assessed first-round parliamentary results. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX were both around 0.4% higher.
In Asia, most markets declined after data showed China’s manufacturing activity struggled to come out of negative territory. The Nikkei 225 was 0.50% higher, while the S&P ASX 200 and KOSPI were trading 0.40% and 0.26% lower, respectively.
Market Outlook
As the second half of 2024 begins, investors are cautiously optimistic. Historical trends suggest that a strong first half is often followed by above-average returns in the second half. However, elevated valuations and economic uncertainties could pose challenges. Analysts will be closely monitoring upcoming economic data and corporate earnings reports to gauge market direction.
Overall, the stock market appears poised for a positive start to the second half, but investors should remain vigilant and prepared for potential volatility.
Sources
- Stock Chart Icon, CNBC.
- Stock Market Today: All You Need To Know Before Going Into Trade On July 1, NDTV Profit.
- Stock Market Today: Dow Jones Reverses On GDP, Jobless Claims; Micron Dives On Earnings | Investor’s Business Daily, Investor’s Business Daily.
- Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for June 28 – Bloomberg, Bloomberg.